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The Government has confirmed that the next fiscal event will be held on Wednesday 26 November 2025. A weaker economic outlook is intensifying pressure on the public finances, leaving the Chancellor with unpalatable choices. Further borrowing, and the rising debt interest that accompanies it, is not a sustainable economic solution and risks a harsh reaction from the bond markets. That narrows the options to higher taxes or lower spending. After a series of welfare policy reversals, speculation has grown that tax rises may be unavoidable.
This prospect is complicated by Labour's manifesto commitments to "not increase taxes on working people" specifically National Insurance Contributions, the basic, higher, or additional rates of Income Tax, or VAT. Ministers have reiterated that these pledges "stand today," yet the Chancellor has cautioned that "the world has changed" since she last ruled out further tax increases. Although ministers have dismissed a dedicated wealth tax, they are actively weighing measures to raise revenue, support growth and protect working households. Reconciling these objectives will be difficult.
The Autumn Budget season coincides with party conferences, and the Conservative Party—freed from the constraints of government—is setting out a contrasting policy agenda. Its overarching theme is to find spending reductions to fund tax cuts, and it has already highlighted tax-related policies it would seek to reverse. These include abolishing stamp duty, reversing the recent inheritance tax changes affecting family businesses, reviewing the taxation of the self employed, and potentially a renewed look at the UK's non dom regime.
Ultimately for the Labour Government in power, the precise mix will turn on the latest economic forecasts available in November, as well as the Government's appetite to reinterpret its manifesto pledges to preserve flexibility while maintaining public trust.
This article appears in UK Tax Snapshot – October 2025
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