Honigman Capitol Report: Pre-Election Issue

2024 Michigan Ballot Breakdown

President/Vice President

With the election only days away, the latest poll from USA TODAY/Suffolk University shows Harris and Trump tied 47% to 47% in Michigan. With 15 electoral votes up for grabs, Michigan is among seven important swing states that presidential candidates have targeted during the campaign. Polls suggest that Michigan along with the other swing states, including Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Georgia and Arizona, are too close to predict. With eight presidential candidates on the ballot, long-shot candidates Robert F. Kennedy Jr., Jill Stein and Cornel West each came in at 1% in the USA TODAY poll. Normally, 1% would not be a concern. However, in Michigan, any one of the third-party candidates could make a difference with how close polling has been. Kennedy dropped out of the race in August, however, his name will remain on the ballot in Michigan and Wisconsin after the Supreme Court rejected his request to be removed.

U.S. Senate

In addition to the presidential campaign, Michigan has been the scene of an aggressive race between Democratic Representative Ellisa Slotkin and former Republican congressman Mike Rogers to replace longtime Democratic Senator Debbie Stabenow, who is retiring. According to the latest polling averages from FiveThirtyEight, Slotkin holds a 4% lead over Rogers, 48.5% to 44.6%. Slotkin's bid for the U.S. Senate seat has left her former District 7 up for grabs in the House.

U.S. House

In addition to Slotkin's seat, all remaining Michigan representatives of the U.S. Congress are also up for re-election on Tuesday. Curtis Hertel (Democrat) and Tom Barrett (Republican) are battling for District 7 with the latest polling averages giving Barrett a 3-4% lead. In the 10th District, Democrat Carl Marlinga and Republican John James are neck and neck in some polls while others give James a slight lead. James has worked to establish himself in the Macomb County district for two years now and has a financial edge over his opponent. However, Marlinga has been a household name in the region for decades and presents as a moderate Democrat, coming within half a percentage of winning last time around. Another key U.S. House race this year with play out in District 8 between Democrat Kristen McDonald Rivet and Republican Paul Junge with polling giving Junge a small lead. The district that covers the Tri-Cities region (Genesee, Saginaw and Bay Counties and parts of Midland County) could help determine the House majority next year and has been rated as a tossup after Democratic U.S. Representative Dan Kilee decided to retire. Outside groups have dumped nearly $10 million into the race with Republicans seeing an opportunity to flip the District because it will be the first time since 1976 without a Kildee on the ballot.

State Legislature

In the state Legislature, Democrats are defending the narrow majority they have held in the House since 2022 and reclaimed in April during special elections. All 110 state House seats are up for election next week and campaign organizations for both national parties have prioritized Michigan's House races this year. Republicans only need to flip one seat to split the chamber and two would give them control for the final two years of Governor Whitmer's second term. In at least 13 districts, races have cost more than $1 million each while eight districts have seen more than $2 million each in spending so far. The most expensive race is in downriver Wayne County where Democratic Representative Jaime Churches faces a challenge from Republican Rylee Linting, the youth vice chair of the Michigan Republican Party. Churches won the predominately Republican district by only 660 votes in 2022 and is in a close battle with Linting. More than $3.8 million has been spent in the district from disclosed sources alone. Other competitive races to watch include Democrat Representative Nate Shannon/Republican challenger Ron Robinson in District 58 which covers part of Macomb County, and Democrat Representative Jim Haadsma/Republican challenger Steve Frisbie in District 44 which covers part of Calhoun County. If Republicans are able to take the House, Democrats are expected to rush a voting rights package among other legislation during the lame duck period between Election Day and next term.

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